Step 4 / 509:00 WITA — 24/4/2026 (Day 2) · 3-Year Production Ramp + Sensitivity Analysis. Foxel generate 3 skenario (konservatif, base, agresif) dengan Monte Carlo 1.000 iterasi variasi HBA price + diesel + labor cost. Ibu Nurul (CFO) review untuk validasi financing & cash flow.09:00 WITA — 24/4/2026 (Day 2) · 3-Year Production Ramp + Sensitivity Analysis. Foxel generates 3 scenarios (conservative, base, aggressive) with 1,000-iteration Monte Carlo varying HBA price + diesel + labor. Mrs. Nurul (CFO) reviews for financing & cash flow.
Step 4 · 3-Year Production Ramp + Sensitivity
Base + conservative + aggressive scenario · Monte Carlo 1k iterasi
Pak Andi + Ibu Nurul
CEO + CFO
3-Year Production Curve3-Year Production Curve
200k t
Year 1 · 2027
Ramp-up · 10 bln produksiRamp-up · 10 prod months
800k t
Year 2 · 2028
Full run · 4× Y1Full run · 4× Y1
1,5M t
Year 3 · 2029
Target · 2nd pit openTarget · 2nd pit open
Parameter
Y1 2027
Y2 2028
Y3 2029
Produksi ROM (t)
200.000
800.000
1.500.000
SR (BCM/t)
4,8 (low strip)
5,3
5,5
Overburden (BCM)
960.000
4.240.000
8.250.000
Revenue (USD)
15,6 M
63,2 M
122,4 M
OPEX (USD)
11,2 M
38,4 M
66,0 M
EBITDA (USD)
4,4 M
24,8 M
56,4 M
CapEx kumulatif
18,0 M
20,0 M
26,0 M
NPV (10% discount)
USD 58,2 M · IRR 28%
Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis
HBA Coal Price (USD/t)
60 (-20%)75 base95 (+25%)
NPV range: USD 32-88 juta
Diesel price (USD/L)
0,85 (-15%)1,00 base1,25 (+25%)
NPV impact: -USD 8M / +USD 5M
CV Actual (GAR)
4,900 (-6%)5,200 base5,400 (+4%)
Range premium/penalty: ±USD 4/t
SR variability (BCM/t)
4,5 (better)5,3 base6,2 (worse)
NPV impact: -USD 12M / +USD 6M
✓ Robustness check:Robustness check:Base case NPV USD 58M. Worst case (semua unfavorable) NPV masih positive USD 12M. Proyek viable.Base case NPV USD 58M. Worst case (all unfavourable) still positive NPV USD 12M. Project is viable.